Zillow: CPI Shelter Forecast, August 2026
Zillow forecasts 2.8% rent inflation, 3.2% OER inflation annually in August, as measured by the Consumer Price Index.
Written by Treh Manhertz on September 10, 2026
Update Following 09/11/2026 CPI Release:
The August CPI release showed housing inflation slightly below expectation, lending some small drag to headline inflation, though still consistent with our expectations for plateauing growth.
Seasonally-adjusted CPI for Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER) increased 0.19%, below our expectation of 0.26%. The index rose 3.08% year over year, versus our expectation of 3.16%.
Seasonally-adjusted CPI for Rent of Primary Residence rose by 0.17%, above our expectation of 0.27%. The index rose 2.75% year over year, versus our expectation of 2.85%.
Other smaller components of Shelter brought the category to a 0.26% increase in August, with spending on hotels up 2.7%% and household insurance unchanged for the month.
The gradual decline in housing inflation over recent years has plateaued. Some pressure came back on for market rents this summer, meaning higher starting points for new tenants and less undercutting for landlords seeking to renew at higher rates. We do not think this upward pressure will be sustained long-term, however. Vacancy rates have increased back to roughly their historic average, and the job market is uncertain, meaning that market rents will have little impetus to grow further.
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New shelter inflation numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are scheduled to be released on Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 ET.
Key Takeaway
CPI housing inflation is expected to hold near its current pace through the remainder of 2026, with rent inflation forecast to finish the year around 3.0% and OER near 3.3%. July's rent reading showed steady growth, in line with expectations. Shelter disinflation has effectively plateaued in the near-term.
New-lease prices have been growing at their fastest pace of 2025-2026, and though they are not accelerating, this has put a damper on the declines in measured housing inflation. Current trends suggest that by year-end, the annual rate of growth will be roughly equal between new-lease rents and CPI rents. Zillow Research sees shelter costs maintaining this higher level over the next year.
The Forecast
Period | Owners’ Equivalent Rent | Rent of Primary Residence | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month-over-month | Year-over-year | Month-over-month | Year-over-year | |||||
| Forecast | Actual | Forecast | Actual | Forecast | Actual | Forecast | Actual | |
| March 2026 | 0.21% | 0.28% | 3.02% | 3.10% | 0.17% | 0.19% | 2.55% | 2.56% |
| April 2026 | 0.44% | 0.53% | 3.20% | 3.30% | 0.39% | 0.55% | 2.63% | 2.79% |
| May 2026 | 0.25% | 0.29% | 3.27% | 3.32% | 0.20% | 0.36% | 2.76% | 2.92% |
| June 2026 | 0.27% | 0.24% | 3.28% | 3.25% | 0.26% | 0.15% | 2.96% | 2.84% |
| July 2026 | 0.27% | 0.26% | 3.25% | 3.23% | 0.22% | 0.26% | 2.82% | 2.86% |
| August 2026 | 0.26% | -- | 3.16% | -- | 0.27% | -- | 2.85% | -- |
| … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … |
| December 2026 | 0.24% | -- | 3.33% | -- | 0.24% | -- | 3.04% | -- |
Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER)
Monthly outlook: Owner's Equivalent Rent, which measures what homeowners would theoretically pay to rent their own homes, is projected to have increased 0.26% in August 2026 (95% confidence interval: 0.13% - 0.39%). This would bring the annual increase in the index to 3.16%. We expect the monthly growth to trend toward a 0.24% pace over the year.
Annual outlook: We forecast OER to rise 3.33% over 2026, keeping pace with the 2025 increase of 3.36%.
Rent of Primary Residence
Monthly outlook: Rent of Primary Residence, which tracks rent payments, is projected to have increased 0.27% in August 2026 (95% confidence interval: 0.12% - 0.42%). This would bring the annual increase in the index to 2.85%. We expect the monthly growth to trend toward a 0.24% pace over the year.
Annual outlook: We forecast the Rent of Primary Residence index to rise 3.04% over 2026, a slight increase from the 2025 increase of 2.92%.
Market Rents
Single-family: Zillow’s expectations for on-market rent growth for single-family units held steady: Single-family rents are expected to rise 2.9% year-over-year in 2026.
Multifamily: Zillow’s expectations for on-market rent growth for apartments held steady: Multifamily rents are expected to rise 1.9% year-over-year in 2026.
Methodology
These forecasts are based on predictions from a model that makes explicit the relationship between on market rents (measured by the Zillow’s Observed Rent Index) and the shelter components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The model incorporates:
- Expected on-market rent growth (Zillow’s Observed Rent Forecast, ZORF)
- Assumptions about how landlords adjust rents at lease renewal
- Renter mobility rates, which determine what share of tenants face a market rent increase.
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