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Zillow Research

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Accuracy in Context: Why Zillow’s Case-Shiller Forecast Is So Dependable

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have long been a benchmark for measuring changes in home price appreciation nationwide and in many individual markets. But despite Case-Shiller’s reputation, weaknesses including an older methodology, limited footprint and substantial lag in timeliness make it fairly easy to predict, and open the door for newer measures like the Zillow Home Value Index to offer a more nuanced and timely look at the market.

Key Takeaways from the January New Home Sales Report

January new home sales rose 3.7 percent from December, to 555,000 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The rebound in new home sales was expected to some degree, given weak December sales which were likely impacted by unseasonably cold weather across much of the country. However, sales were weaker than the consensus forecast, suggesting a modestly disappointing report.

Rapid Reaction: January New Home Sales

Sales of newly built homes rose 3.7 percent in January from a weak December and 5.5 percent year-over-year, to 555,000 (SAAR), according to the Census Bureau's January new home sales data. Data from prior months, notably October and November, was revised downward.

January 2017 Market Report: The Rest Overtake the West

In January, U.S. median home value growth continued to accelerate year-over-year, the 22 month out of the past 23 in which annual growth was similar to or faster than the prior month. But while the national trend has remained roughly the same for two years, a slowdown in growth in a handful of pricey West Coast markets, particularly in California, has opened the door for more affordable markets in the South to top the list of the nation’s fastest-growing metros.