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U.S. Housing Confidence: Future Uncertainty Weighs, But Key Demographic Groups Remain Confident

Americans’ overall confidence in the U.S. housing market slipped at the beginning of 2016 from a year ago, according to the January 2016 Zillow Housing Confidence Index, driven lower by diminished expectations of the market’s future. But despite this uncertainty, overall aspirations for homeownership are at their highest level in two years, driven in large part by faith among younger Americans and Americans-of-color in the general value of homeownership.

Key Takeaways From the January New Home Sales Report

January new home sales retreated after a strong December, falling 9.2 percent month-to-month to 494,000 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. January new home sales were down 5.2 percent from a year earlier, and have been roughly flat over the past year.

Key Takeaways From the January Existing Home Sales Report

January existing home sales edged up 0.4 percent from December to 5.47 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), and hit a new price high in the month, according to the National Association of Realtors (figure 1). December sales were revised slightly downward to 5.45 million units (SAAR) from 5.46 million units (SAAR).

January Case-Shiller Forecast: Modestly Slower Growth Expected

The December Case-Shiller indices grew at a pace in line with prior months, with all three headline indices showing annual appreciation above 5 percent per year. Zillow expects all three January Case-Shiller indices to show slower growth, with the 10-City Composite Index expected to register sub-5 percent annual growth for the first time in months.

December Case-Shiller: Steady As She Goes

This morning, all three of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed annual home price growth above 5 percent in December. The December Case-Shiller indices grew at a pace very similar to that recorded in November.

Now and Later: How a Stronger U.S. Dollar Impacts Foreign Buyers

In pure U.S. dollars and cents, the median American home is currently worth roughly 6.4 percent less than it was prior to the great recession. But for those looking to invest their Russian rubles and kopeks in U.S. real estate, or Brazilian reais and centavos (among other currencies), U.S. homes are more expensive than they’ve been in at least two decades – and maybe ever.