8 Ways the Fall Housing Market Could Work in Buyers’ Favor

The busiest time of year for buying and selling homes is behind us, but for some shoppers and sellers, the coming months can be a period of opportunity. If recent fall seasons offer a preview of what’s ahead, buyers will likely see less competition and more deals on homes that haven’t yet sold.

“2026 is another year when there’s a lot of uncertainty, and some buyers are just waiting to see what happens,” says Zillow Senior Economist Kara Ng. “The right time for you depends on more than just the market. Life changes — a new job, a growing family, or simply wanting to downsize — are also a big factor, and sometimes those override market conditions.”

With that background, here’s how the fall 2026 market is likely to shape up.

1. Buyers have more homes to choose from 

Zillow data shows the supply of homes for sale has grown for 32 straight months, but the pace is slowing.

There were 1.41 million homes on the market in July, 1.5% more than a year ago. Sellers added 387,203 new listings over the course of the month, up 3.1% from last July. Still, those new listings were down 4.2% from June, the seasonal turn that usually deepens through fall. And the national supply is about 18% smaller than it was before the pandemic.

Buyer tip: Set up a saved search for your preferred neighborhoods, price range and must-haves, so you’ll know when a new match hits the market.

Top 10 metros, year-over-year inventory growth

2. More homes = more time to shop

The pace of decision-making is still far from leisurely, but a thinner pool of shoppers heading into fall means buyers are likely to have more time to consider their options. 

In July, a typical seller found a buyer 25 days after listing their home for sale. That's five days longer than the previous month and one day longer than this time last year. Homes sitting on the market are older, too: the typical active listing in July had been up for 60 days.

“If you’re a buyer, you’re likely to have more time to decide on your options," says Ng. “You have time to really consider if that home is the right fit for you.”

3. Buyers can lock in their budgets

Mortgage rates have hovered in the mid-6% range for most of this year, and they climbed over the summer to an 11-month high after a jump in oil prices stoked new inflation worries. Zillow's forecast calls for rates to ease only gradually, to roughly 6.5% by the end of 2026, though this is not a guarantee. 

Unless rates fall more meaningfully, the small cost advantage buyers had for most of 2026 could fade. The monthly payment on a typical home was $1,888 in July, 0.9% lower than a year ago. 

Trying to time rates perfectly is also a gamble. If a home fits your budget and your life, it can make sense to move forward — you can always refinance later if rates fall.

If mortgage rates do dip significantly — though they’re not expected to — buyers can save on their monthly payments or boost their home-buying budget. But Ng says that there can be tradeoffs when rates drop.

“An unexpected drop in interest rates is usually great for affordability,’’ says Ng. “But it can also attract a wider pool of buyers, so you also lose some advantages. It's a ‘would you rather’ game: Would you rather have favorable conditions and compete with lots of other people, or maybe slightly less favorable conditions with less competition?”

Buyer tip: Before you start shopping, get your BuyAbility. It gives you a personalized estimate of a home price and monthly payment that fit your budget, based on current rates, and flags listings that are within your range.

4. Prices have flattened in many markets

In recent years, double-digit price growth meant buyers were constantly chasing the magic number they needed to hit their budgets for buying and down payments. That chase has slowed. The typical U.S. home was worth $371,757 in July, up just 1.1% from a year earlier, and Zillow economists expect home values to finish 2026 down 0.2% from where they started.

The national number blends two different local stories. Home values were higher than a year ago in 28 of the 50 largest metro areas and lower in 21. Either way, slower appreciation gives buyers a break from the price run-ups of the past several years — and more room for incomes to catch up.

Buyer tip: Try Zillow’s Affordability Calculator to test how a different down payment, loan term or purchase price could change your monthly payment.

5. Sellers are still cutting prices

Price cuts usually peak in the late-summer and early-fall months, then taper off as the holidays approach. How far they climb this year depends in large part on where mortgage rates and the broader economy go.

Nationally, 27.1% of listings had a price cut in July, up 1.4 percentage points from June and down 0.2 points from a year earlier. Many sellers are also sweetening deals with concessions such as covering closing costs or buying down mortgage interest rates for the first one to three years.

Local markets have their own dynamic, so expect a range of differences depending on where you're shopping. Even modest concessions can lower a monthly mortgage payment or reduce the cost of buying, so it's worth talking with your agent about whether concessions are common in your area and whether your local market favors buyers or sellers.

6. Nationally, neither side has the upper hand

The advantage sellers enjoyed nationally for the past few years has largely disappeared in favor of a neutral market that favors buyers and sellers about equally. Buyers who shop this fall are negotiating with sellers who no longer necessarily hold all the leverage.

Locally, there are still markets that strongly favor sellers and those where buyers have an edge. The strongest buyers markets in July were Cincinnati, Miami, New Orleans, Jacksonville and Louisville; sellers held the firmest grip in San Francisco, Hartford, Buffalo, Providence and San Jose.

Zillow data shows that sellers tend to have the edge in the spring and lose it in the fall, when a lot of potential buyers retrench for either the holidays or the next home shopping season.

Buyer tip: The national market doesn’t tell the whole story. Check Zillow’s Market Heat Index to see whether buyers or sellers have the edge where you’re shopping, then talk with a local agent about how that should shape your offer.

7. Buyers may be able to avoid bidding wars

These dreaded bidding wars, common during the pandemic boom and more recently in certain metros, can be stressful, costly, and demoralizing if you lose. If you’re in a strong sellers’ market, bidding wars may be hard to avoid. In a buyer’s or neutral market, you’re less likely to find yourself competing. As a rule, fall tends to feature fewer bidding wars than the spring.

8. Buyers may have more negotiating power

Sellers who listed in April, May or June and haven’t sold by late summer often lower prices, hoping for a fall sale. If you’re a buyer who’s hoping to strike a deal, look for homes that have been on the market for a while and that may already have lowered prices. You may find a motivated seller who’s more willing to negotiate.

The right time to buy?

Higher interest rates and elevated home prices have resulted in pent-up demand by potential buyers, Ng says. If interest rates drop unexpectedly, some of that demand is likely to be unleashed, as we’ve seen with previous rate drops.

Just like with any market, this can be the right time to buy. It very much depends on your personal financial situation and life circumstances. Can you comfortably afford the full monthly cost today? How long do you plan to stay? Does this home fit the life you expect to have?

If you decide to move forward, be sure your budget is sorted and your financing is lined up, so you can act quickly if you find a home you love.