Spring Home-Buying Season 2026: What Economists Say You Can Expect

After January’s winter storms put the chill on what’s usually a slow time for home sales, February brought the first hints of a thaw.

Home values rose for the first time in seven months and sales climbed above last year’s pace, early signs that the market may finally be turning a corner. Mortgage rates spent much of late winter near three‑year lows and even briefly dipped below 6% before jumping again in early March.

Now rising energy prices are adding new uncertainty to the 2026 housing market. Higher costs could keep mortgage rates elevated and temper expectations for a modest rebound in activity, especially this spring. 

Since late February, the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has climbed steadily from just under 6%. Still, economists say the likeliest outcome is a slow, uneven recovery rather than a sharp slowdown.

“Buyers and sellers both should think in scenarios, not certainties, " says Zillow Senior Economist Kara Ng. “And in times of economic instability, it’s best to focus on the things you can control.”

Buyers: Plan for higher-but-uncertain costs

Treat the next few months as a stress test for your budget: shop patiently, assume rates stay a bit higher, and avoid stretching on monthly payments or emergency savings. Don’t reach beyond what you’re comfortable with, financially. 

Zillow’s BuyAbility℠ tool can help by turning today’s rates into a clear monthly budget and filtering listings that fit, all as rates and prices move.

“In a market like this, conditions can shift week to week,” says Ng. “The buyers who stay grounded are the ones who keep checking in on their numbers and stay closely connected with their agent. When the right opportunity arises, those who stay prepared have the advantage.”

Find homes in your budget with BuyAbility℠

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Sellers: Time your listing for late May, but stay flexible

Zillow research finds that nationally, homes listed in late May tend to sell faster and for a bit more than those listed earlier or later in the year. In a jittery, rate-sensitive market, that window is still your best bet. Use April to prep photos, pricing and repairs, then be ready to adjust on price or concessions if demand softens in your area.